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The Monday brief

Every race that moved this week, in one email: rating changes from the Cook Political Report and other forecasters, new polls, betting-odds swings, and the toss-ups to watch. Pick your states and each gets its own section.

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This week's issue so far

The Monday brief · Saturday, Oct. 3 · 31 days to Election Day

31 days out · Senate: Democrats 65% · House: Democrats 94%

Where it stands

Senate Democrats 65%, Republicans 35%

65%35%

House Democrats 94%, Republicans 6%

94%6%

Chance of winning control, from Polymarket traders. Generic ballot: Democrats +8.3. Trump approval: 37.2% approve, 60.5% disapprove.

What changed this week

  • Polymarket now favors the Democrat in the Nevada governor race (53%). Details
  • New Texas governor poll: Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46 (New York Times/Siena University). Details
  • New Ohio Senate poll: Brown 49, Husted 46 (New York Times/Siena University). Details
  • New Kansas governor poll: Masterson 49, Holscher 44 (New York Times/Siena University). Details
  • New Kansas Senate poll: Marshall 45, Hamilton 45 (New York Times/Siena University). Details
  • New Iowa governor poll: Sand 52, Lahn 41 (New York Times/Siena University). Details
  • New Iowa Senate poll: Hinson 48, Turek 47 (New York Times/Siena University). Details
  • New Texas Senate poll: Talarico 51, Paxton 45 (New York Times/Siena University). Details

Your states

Subscribers pick the states they follow, and each one's races appear here: rating, headline, polling and odds.

Toss-ups to watch 12

  • Alaska SenateToss-up

    Peltola challenges Sen. Sullivan after leading top-four primary

    Mary Peltola (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R)

    Polls: Peltola 48.6, Sullivan 46.8 (polling average)

    Odds: Peltola 72% to win (Polymarket)

  • Alaska governorToss-up

    Democrat Kreiss-Tomkins faces three Republicans in ranked-choice race

    Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs. Bernadette Wilson (R)

    Polls: Kreiss-Tomkins 40, Wilson 20 (recent polls)

    Odds: Kreiss-Tomkins 75% to win (Polymarket)

  • Georgia governorToss-up

    Jackson and Bottoms tied in race to succeed Kemp

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) vs. Rick Jackson (R)

    Polls: Jackson 46.5, Bottoms 46.1 (polling average)

    Odds: Jackson 55% to win (Polymarket)

  • Iowa SenateToss-up

    Hinson and Turek locked in tight race for Ernst's open seat

    Josh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R)

    Polls: Turek 45.9, Hinson 45 (polling average)

    Odds: Hinson 57% to win (Polymarket)

  • Maine SenateToss-up

    Collins faces late-entry Democrat Troy Jackson after Platner's withdrawal

    Troy Jackson (D) vs. Susan Collins (R)

    Polls: Jackson 48.2, Collins 46.7 (polling average)

    Odds: Jackson 60% to win (Polymarket)

  • Michigan SenateToss-up

    El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Rogers in close open-seat race

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)

    Polls: El-Sayed 47.8, Rogers 44.2 (polling average)

    Odds: El-Sayed 73% to win (Polymarket)

  • New Hampshire SenateToss-up

    Pappas and Sununu battle for Shaheen's open seat

    Chris Pappas (D) vs. John E. Sununu (R)

    Polls: Pappas 47.7, Sununu 41.8 (polling average)

    Odds: Pappas 87% to win (Polymarket)

  • Nevada governorToss-up

    Attorney General Aaron Ford challenges first-term Gov. Joe Lombardo

    Aaron Ford (D) vs. Joe Lombardo (R)

    Polls: Lombardo 44.2, Ford 44.2 (polling average)

    Odds: Ford 52% to win (Polymarket)

  • Ohio SenateToss-up

    Sherrod Brown's comeback bid against appointed Sen. Jon Husted

    Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R)

    Polls: Brown 48.2, Husted 43.7 (polling average)

    Odds: Brown 61% to win (Polymarket)

  • Ohio governorToss-up

    Acton and Ramaswamy vie to succeed term-limited Gov. DeWine

    Amy Acton (D) vs. Vivek Ramaswamy (R)

    Polls: Acton 49, Ramaswamy 44.5 (polling average)

    Odds: Acton 66% to win (Polymarket)

  • Texas SenateToss-up

    Talarico and Paxton battle for Cornyn's seat in close race

    James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R)

    Polls: Talarico 48.1, Paxton 45.3 (polling average)

    Odds: Talarico 66% to win (Polymarket)

  • Wisconsin governorToss-up

    Crowley and Tiffany vie to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers

    David Crowley (D) vs. Tom Tiffany (R)

    Polls: Crowley 49, Tiffany 46 (recent polls)

    Odds: Crowley 82% to win (Polymarket)

The big picture

Democrats are favored to win control of the House, where they need a net gain of only a few seats; the Cook Political Report projects a Democratic gain of five to 15 seats, and prediction markets put the party's chances above 90%.

President Trump's approval rating has reached new lows, about 37% approve and 60% disapprove in the Silver Bulletin average, with his ratings on the economy and the cost of living weaker still.

The war with Iran, which began at the end of February, and Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed gasoline prices toward $4.50 a gallon, making fuel and living costs a central campaign issue, particularly in Midwestern and farm states.

Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by about 9 points in the Silver Bulletin average, their widest margin of the cycle.

A mid-decade redistricting fight that began in Texas in 2025 and widened after the Supreme Court's Louisiana v. Callais ruling produced new maps in nine states, most drawn by Republicans, though forecasters say the national environment has blunted the expected Republican gains.